ESPN talks about winners and losers this summer: Rockets win KD completely, Lakers attract Ayton to be unsatisfied

(The original article was published on July 3, and the author is Zach Kram of ESPN website. The content of the article does not represent the translator's views)

One week after the draft ended, the free agent market also came to the fourth day. Zach Kram of ESPN website listed the winners and losers from the offseason to this day. As the offseason continues to advance, these evaluations may still change. In recent years, the deals between Mitchell, Lillard and Towns have been delayed until September and October.

Winner: The Houston Rockets

With Durant's deal alone, the Rockets are enough to be the offseason winner. The deal won so thoroughly that they perfectly strengthened their biggest shortcomings, but did not pay any top star or future high-quality draft assets. And the Rockets didn't stop there: they signed Finney Smith for four years and 53 million, introduced Capela for three years and 21.5 million, signed a team-friendly contract with Van Vreet, reached a reasonable contract renewal with Jabarri Smith Jr., and also renewed Tate, Aaron Holiday and Jeff Green to enrich the lineup. In the end, the Rockets have created a team that combines the depth and versatility of the lineup, which can defeat opponents in various ways: defense, rebounds, size, confrontation, vitality, experience, and Durant's unsolvable scoring talent. The Rockets will compete with the Thunder for the title of "the team with the deepest lineup in the league". Now that it has become the second strongest team in the West, the Rockets will also compete with the Thunder for the Western Conference championship, becoming the biggest threat to hinder the Thunder's reproduction of the 2017-18 season with Warriors Du defending their title.

This lineup is not perfect: due to insufficient depth of the back line, the Rockets will rely heavily on 31-year-old Van Vreet, who has passed the peak. If Shepard, the last year's draft, can make a leap in the second grade, it will be a major benefit for the Rockets. His rookie season averaged only 4.4 points and 12.6 minutes on the court. The frontcourt rotation may also be confusing due to players' dissatisfaction with playing time: the three-center lineup structure formed with Shin Kyung and Adams after Capela joins may rely too much on the intermittent effect of the double tower tactics. But these flaws cannot hide the luxurious nature of the lineup: the Rockets are cleverly operating the cap space and replacing Dillon Brooks with Finney Smith. Although the former has a slightly inferior single defense ability, there is no need to worry about the team with Amen Thompson and Tari Ethan. The Rockets' complete victory in the offseason is replaced by the historically efficient scorer Durant.

Loser: Los Angeles Lakers

Since the moment when they got Luca Doncic in the shocking trade, the Lakers urgently need to strengthen the center. They sent away the original main player Anthony Davis in the trade, while Doncic's style of play requires a dynamic pick-and-roll partner, which is confirmed by Gafford's outbreak in the Mavericks and his amazing performance in Levley's rookie season. Therefore, it is not surprising that the Lakers hope to trade a young bounce center immediately after getting Doncic, but when Mark Williams failed to trade due to a failed physical examination, the Lakers could only rely on the existing lineup. Although Hayes started four games in the playoffs, he obviously did not gain the trust of head coach Redick. He did not play double-time in all four games, and was eventually abandoned in the final game of the season. Redick switched to a 48-minute lineup. At least, after being out of the playoffs, the Lakers' top priority this summer seems to be very clear. However, for a few days after the free agent market started, all the Lakers' main goals were to be added to his team, and they could only sign Ayton, who accidentally entered the market after reaching a buyout with the Trail Blazers.

Aiton is neither an ideal short-term puzzle for the championship team nor a long-term ideal partner for Doncic. The 2018 draft No. 1 pick (coincidentally two picks higher than Doncic) is neither an empty threat nor a space-type fifth position, and its competitive state reached its peak five years ago. Although the basic data continues to be impressive, all mainstream high-level data show Ayton is a player below the league average. Worse, the two-year contract with player options is almost unprofitable for the team: if he performs well in the first year, he will jump out of the contract, and if he fails to win coach Redick, he will continue to occupy the salary space until the second year.

This operation is a playful game when the Lakers are trying hard to calm James' dissatisfaction and try to convince Doncic to renew his long contract this summer. There are few elements in the lineup that can impress Doncic's signing: the Lakers have hoarded too many power forwards (Hatumura, Kleber, Vanderbilt, and of course James) but have no reliable centers. The only important operation besides signing Ayton is to replace Finney Smith with Laravia.

Winner: The key reason why the Lakers center reinforcement plan quickly derailed is that high-quality big men have been snapped up. "Housing the inside" became the most prominent theme in the first week of the offseason, even though many teams seem to have become saturated at this position. The Rockets still signed Capela while having Shinkin and Adams; the Spurs introduced Cornet to assist Vinbanyama; the Nuggets traded Valanciunas, equip Jokic with the best substitute in recent years; the Clippers signed Lopez as Zubacci's backing; the Knicks allowed Yabussele to form the frontcourt with Towns and Mitchell Robinson; the Pelicans signed Looney to play at the off-peak with potential newcomer Misi; the Raptors renewed Pelter and signed Mamukelashvili; in addition to renewing Portis, the Bucks also signed Turner and Himes.

"Two Towers Strategy" was also revealed on draft night: two non-playoff teams in the Western Conference have built a long-term inside combination. The Trail Blazers selected the potential stock Yang Hansen, 2.16 meters, and partnered with the second-year center Klingen, who was 2.18 meters; the Suns quickly traded veteran Mark Williams and took the first center selected this year - Maluach.

The championship team even spent a lot of money to maintain the inside rotation: the Timberwolves spent $225 million to renew Naz Reed and Randall, and Gobert, whose contract renewal has begun to take effect in the new season, even after the trade of Towns, the Timberwolves still invested $334.5 million in the inside; the Grizzlies retained Jaren Jackson and Aldama for $292.5 million.. The Hawks won the battle for Alexander Walker and replaced LeVer who transferred to the Pistons with Kennard (43.8%), who shot first in his career three-point shooting percentage.

Now the Hawks have configured Trae Young in the rotation lineup: Dyson Daniels, DPOY voted second, Alexander Walker/Jeren Johnson/Last pick Rissache, as well as defensive centers Porzingis and Okonwu. Trae Young's defensive efficiency has never been higher than the 18th in the league so far. Now, as long as the backcourt combination of Trae Young and Kennard is avoided, it is expected to break through the average in the new season.

But these operations are not even the best move for the Hawks this summer. On draft night, they robbed the Pelicans of 10 upward trading picks (up from 23rd to 13th), and the Pelicans actually accepted them all! Now, the Hawks have an unprotected first-round pick with the higher pick between the Pelicans and the Bucks in 2026. Given the continued turmoil of the Bucks and the Pelicans' weak position in the Wild West, the pick is very likely to fall into the lottery zone. Referring to my draft pick value chart, the difference between the 13th and 23rd picks is equivalent to the value of a No. 28 draw, and the Hawks are almost destined to be the winner of the trade. Don’t mention their playoff journey year after year. In the open East, the Hawks, which has completed a comprehensive upgrade in the new season, is expected to hit the top four seeds. The only minor flaw is the loss of Larry Nance Jr. (a secret reinforcement for the Cavaliers bench), but this does not damage their brilliant offseason performance.

Loser: New Orleans Pelicans

If the Hawks become the winner due to the "robbery" on draft night, the robbed party should naturally be on the loser list. The new management team, led by Joe Dumas and Troy Weaver, seemed to have seriously misjudged the team's current status and lineup status and made a puzzling decision. The Pelicans ranked bottom in the Western Conference this season (14th). Although their health will definitely be better than 21 wins and 61 losses in the new season, it is hard to imagine how many strong teams they can surpass. Even if the Suns fall further, the 13th Spurs, the 12th Trail Blazers and the 10th Mavericks will strengthen this summer. The Pelicans need to surpass these three teams (or two of them plus another higher-ranked team) to barely squeeze into the last bus of the playoffs. If they fail to enter the playoffs, the Pelicans will give the Hawks a lottery. And the draft pick they risked to trade eventually selected Derek Quinn, who might overlap with Zion's position. The rookie may be able to grow into a star, but its adaptability to the core of the existing lineup is questionable. The technical characteristics of the two inside players between the third and fourth positions are highly similar: Can the combination of Zion and Quinn open up the space? Can the defensive end limit the opponent?

If this is just the only failure of the Pelicans during the offseason (no matter how unwise), it may not have been a big blow, but other operations of the new management also lack coherent strategic goals. They traded McCollum and Olynik for Poole and Sadiq Bay, and exchanged second round picks with the Wizards. After being reimbursed for the season after Sadiq Bay suffered an ACL torn season, he might be able to help him recover, but in essence he replaced McCollum with Poole. Although Poole is eight years younger, advanced data shows that the two are currently worth the same, and Poole's contract is 34 million more than a year. Signing Looney in free agent market is even more suspicious. His performance after leaving the Warriors' unique system for the first time in his career is unpredictable. Especially when multiple non-space players are on the court at the same time, the Pelicans' offensive space will be extremely congested: Looney, Zion, Quinn and starting center Missy have a total of 922 career games (Quin University data + other three NBA data) only hit 51 three-pointers.

Original text: Kevin Pelton

Compiled by: Li Taibai