Current Players Hall of Fame Probability Prediction: 75 Superstars Make Steady, Jokic Embiid SGA Follows

Translator's note: The original text was published on ESPN, and the data in the article were as of the time of the original text (local time, month and day). The dates and times involved were local time

When the latest star-studded members were inducted into the Basketball Hall of Fame this weekend, we can't help but look forward to the future and think about which active players may receive this honor after retirement.

History shows that many active stars will one day have a place in Springfield. Between 1955 and 2005, between 26 and 44 active players in any season were eventually inducted into the Hall of Fame, with an average of 34 active players in each season.

With this precedent in mind, let's take a look at the 50 players who are most likely to become Hall of Fame members in the 2025-26 season. They won't all be selected – that's why we choose to cast a wide net instead of focusing on just 34 people – but these candidates have the best chance of being the lead role at the induction ceremony in the 1930s and 1940s.

First level: The top 75 superstars who locked the Hall of Fame seat, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Stephen Curry, Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, James Harden, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Damian Lillard, Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, *Lillard may miss the 2025-26 season due to the recovery of a torn Achilles tendon.

** Westbrook is not signed yet, but it seems likely to play for a team in the 2025-26 season.

The first batch of future Hall of Famers have been selected into the NBA 75 superstar lineup in 2021. It is ranked among the 75 superstars in history, which is enough to ensure that they will be inducted into the Hall of Fame after their first nomination in the future. We don't need to repeat these active legends.

Second second: Non-75 superstars who lock in Hall of Fame seats Nicola Jokic

Kyrie Irving

Draymond Green

Klay Thompson

Paul George

Jimmy Butler

Joel Embiid

Shay Gilgers Alexander

Rudy Gobert

If the 75 superstar selection committee meets one year later, Jokic is likely to be included in this historical list. Now, as a three-time MVP, two-time MVP selection second place and one-time finals MVP, he has also secured a Hall of Fame seat like other top superstars.

Irving was selected as the All-Star nine times and should have reached 20,000 points in his career in two seasons, and also made one of the most important shots in NBA history. It was obviously enough to send him into the Hall of Fame. His long-time Finals rivals - Green and Thompson - are also unsurprising candidates, both because of their contributions to a dynasty and their respective personal achievements - arguably the greatest defender of a generation and the second greatest three-point shooter in history.

George also secured a seat with nine All-Stars and six All-Squad resumes. All retired players in NBA history who have been selected for the All-A-League at least six times have been in the Hall of Fame. Butler has only been selected for the All-A-Squad five times and hasn't reached that threshold yet, but he was the best player among two Finals teams, which would be a major plus.

Next is Embiid and Alexander, who are bound to be selected because they have won the MVP. Derek Ross is the only former MVP to retire but not inducted into the Hall of Fame, and unlike Embiid and Alexander, Ross has never been selected for the All-Squad in the following season. Such a high and lasting peak period is their guarantee of induction into the Hall of Fame.

Finally, Gobert has four defensive player of the year trophys, tied for first in history. If Deakinbe Mutombo and Ben Wallace, who are also award-winning four times, are both Hall of Fame members, then Gobert must be.

Third level: Young star Luca Doncic

Jason Tatum

Anthony Edwards

Victor Vinbanyama

*Tatum may miss the 2025-26 season due to a torn Achilles tendon.

Although they are only twenty-five or six years old, Doncic and Tatum may have locked up seats in the Hall of Fame. The former was selected for the best team five times, while the latter had four times, plus three teams.

However, for now, they are one step behind players like Alexander who locks in the Hall of Fame level, because each faces a hurdle. For Doncic, it was a lack of a championship; for Tatum, it was uncertainty about his right Achilles injury and whether he could return to the best team level. According to the Hall of Fame probability prediction of the Basketball-Reference website, if Doncic and Tatum retire today, their probability of being selected is 45% and 59% respectively. Those numbers will certainly rise in the coming years – but Doncic and Tatum can’t count as completely locking in Hall of Fame seats. The last two players in this category are younger and have less achievements, but are still worth distinguishing from the large number of early 20-year-old stars listed in the latter category. Edwards ranked fifth in his career in total before the age of 23 (second only to LeBron, Durant, Cameron Anthony and Doncic), and was selected for the second team of All-Squad for two consecutive seasons. Only a handful of retired players - Blake Griffin, Kevin Johnson, Marquis Johnson and Ralph Beard (banned for a counterfeit scandal) - were selected into the All-Squad twice before the age of 23 but are not in the Hall of Fame.

It seems a bit too early to include Vampan Yama in this group, as he only played 117 games in his career. But as long as health allows, Vinban Yama is regarded as a future Hall of Fame member by almost all NBA players, executives and fans with his comprehensive skills demonstrated at a young age.

Fourth level: Veterans on the verge of selection

Demar DeRozan

Kell Lowry

Ju Holiday

Kevin Love

Al Horford

Karl Anthony Towns

*Horford is not signed yet, but he is likely to continue playing in the 2025-26 season.

Although the Basketball-Reference website gives a 48% chance of being admitted to the Hall of Fame based on DeRozan's current resume, he may be close to locking his seat, not just on the brink of being admitted. Only four retired players with a total score of more than 20,000 in careers failed to be selected, and their scores were only just over 20,000: Lamarcus Aldridge (20,558), Joe Johnson (20,407), Tom Chambers (20,049) and Antoine Jamison (20,042). As recently retired players, Aldridge and Johnson may also be selected soon.

Meanwhile, DeRozan's score has reached 25,292 points, and it continues to increase. DeRozan's playoff resume isn't quite rich, but his outstanding attendance and career-cumulated statistics should be enough to help him in the Hall of Fame.

defender Lowry and Holiday are very similar, and while their base stats may not seem like a Hall of Fame level, they should earn extra points as key puzzles and highly respected all-round contributors to the championship team.

Love is a bit like the Power Forward version of Lowry and Holiday. As a five-time All-Star, NBA champion and Olympic gold medalist, he scored more than 15,000 points in his career. However, Love's career is far less durable than the two defenders - he has never scored more than 1,007 points in a single season since the 2017-18 season, which may affect his chances of being selected.

Like Love, Horford is also a five-time All-Star and NBA champion. Unlike Love, Horford's peak height may not be as high as others, but he was still able to make championship-level contributions until his late thirties. Horford’s consideration of basketball achievements at all levels may benefit Horford, thanks to his two straight college championship at the University of Florida. In an era of "playing for a year, leaving", few players can earn significant bonuses to their Hall of Fame resume from NCAA's achievements, and Horford may be the exception.

Finally, Towns is five years younger than the other players in this category, but he is not exactly suitable for any other category on this list. He is certainly a veteran, because he is about to enter his 30s and has played in the NBA for 10 seasons. On the favourable side, Towns has an impressive data record. He is a 7-foot-tall player (about 2.13 meters) and has a career three-point shooting percentage of 40%. And he is one of the only 22 players in the history of the league to average at least 20 points and 10 rebounds in his career. The other 21 people have either entered the Hall of Fame, have not yet retired, or have been suspended for a counterfeit shot scandal (1950s star Alex Groza).

On the downside, Towns' honors—including one Rookie of the Year, five All-Stars and three All-Squads—have not met Hall of Fame standards, and his playoff performance is lacking. Overall, it seems like Towns will need a few more strong seasons to enter the locked-up area. Leading the Knicks to the finals will surely add an important weight to his resume.

Fifth: 29-year-old players at the intersection, Jaylen Brunson, Donovan Mitchell, Devin Booker, Domantas Sabonis, Jaylen Brown, This is an interesting group of players, all of whom will turn 29 by the end of October, and have one or two best-squad resumes. Based on the rest of their performance at the peak, they all have a good chance of being selected for the Hall of Fame.

Brunson is the latest player in this group, a late-achieving player who has been selected into the All-Stars for the past two seasons and ranked in the top 10 in the MVP voting. The Knicks captain has a long way to go – he’s scoring less than 10,000 points in his career – but he’s on the rise and, like Towns, he could make a huge improvement this season if he can lead the Knicks to the Finals in the relatively weak East.

Another player who might take advantage of the Eastern Conference is Mitchell, who will make up for the most obvious flaw in his resume in the process: Despite the incredible success of the regular season and excellent personal data in the playoffs, Mitchell never even made it to the division finals. Still, with six consecutive All-Star selections and a team of All-Series last season, Mitchell has laid a solid foundation for future Hall of Fame.

In the Western Conference, Booker has only been selected for the All-A-Level Team and now finds himself in a bad team environment, but his stability since entering the league as a teenager has placed him in the 10th history of his career score before the age of 28, reaching 16,452 points. Stephen Marbury (No. 19) is the only player in the top 20 to not enter the Hall of Fame or lock the seat. In a decade, Booker may eventually be inducted into the Hall of Fame with a DeRozan-like resume, i.e., to make up for other shortcomings in his career with a high enough total score..

Sabonis may also follow a "data accumulation" route similar to DeRozan to reunite with his father Avidas, who was inducted into the Hall of Fame primarily for his achievements in his international career. Sabonis Jr. has only been selected into the All-Stars three times and two All-Squad, but he is constantly accumulating points, rebounds and assists. With 68 career triple-doubles — 50 of which were achieved in three full seasons he played for the Kings — Sabonis could reach a triple-digit triple-double, something only six players have done in NBA history. (Doncic will almost certainly hit 100 times before Sabonis, and Antetokounmpo may, too.) Brown, the last member of the group, has a unique and convincing award in his honor cabinet: the Finals MVP, which is almost a guarantee of final inclusion: Cedric Maxwell and Andre Igudara (who hasn't had a chance to shortlist yet) are the only two retired Finals MVPs not inducted into the Hall of Fame.

However, most Finals MVPs have a much richer overall resume than Brown, who was selected for the best team only once and never became the best player on his team. Like all other players in this class, he still needs to prove himself. And in the upcoming season, Tatum will have a chance to prove himself as the Celtics’ number one scorer as he is missing due to a torn Achilles tendon.

The sixth: A few years later, the review of Terrys Halliburton

Jaylen Williams

Chett Homgren

Evan Mobri

Cade Cningham

Paul Benkairo

Zion Williamson

Jay Morant

Trey Young

LaMelo Ball

Scottie Barnes

Alperen Shinkin

Terris Maxi

Stephen Castle

Amen Thompson

Cooper Flag

Halilburton may miss the 2025-26 season due to recovery from a torn Achilles tendon.

When analyzing young players who may be on the Hall of Fame, we decided to take the more and the better. Compared to those mature players who have entered the middle and late stages of their careers but have not yet reached the threshold of the Hall of Fame, it is easier for us to imagine that these young people can make a leap in the future and reach that height.

In other words: Are players like Castle better than Pascal Siakam now? Absolutely not. But Siakam is 31 years old. According to the Basketball-Reference website, the probability of being admitted to the Hall of Fame with his current resume is only 2%, while Castle is only 20 years old. Therefore, the best rookie of last season has longer time and greater potential to reach the Hall of Fame.

So we cover every player who made his debut in the past five years and has been selected for the All-Star, plus the young man who looks most likely to be selected for the All-Star soon (Thompson). We won't go into detail about every player in this group, but let's analyze some of the most interesting cases.

Flag hasn't even made his debut, but given his potential as the No. 1 pick -- not to mention a highly-watched No. 1 pick -- he already has a nearly 50% chance of being inducted into the Hall of Fame someday in the future. Here are the number of future Hall of Fame No. 1 picks by year:

1960s: 4} 1970s: 4} 1980s: 5} 1990s: 4} 1900s: 2(Extra CareyBron, probably Griffin and Ross)

1910s are likely to not reach the historical average, with only two members who locked in the Hall of Fame (Davis and Irving) and a player with a half chance (Downs). Meanwhile, Anthony Bennett, Ben Simmons and Markle Fultz can be crossed off the Hall of Fame roster, while Andrew Wiggins and DeAndre Ayton have never been selected for the All-A-Series. Nor is Williamson — but he was only 25 years old, twice-selected All-Star and at least has the potential to play dominant performances while maintaining constant health, and it is still reasonable to see Williamson as a potential long-term Hall of Fame candidate.

The few top picks after him have more full reasons to be selected. We've talked about Edwards and Vinban Yama, while All-Stars Cunningham and Ban Keiro were on the right track early in their careers, with plenty of room to grow as they approached their peak.

Finally, as the Thunder chases the league's latest dynasty, Williams and Homgren may become Thompson and Greene around Alexander. Williams was selected for both the All-Squad and the All-Defensive Team in his third season, and Homegren should be a regular on the All-Squad if he played enough.

Given that there are an average of 34 active Hall of Famers in any season in history, this means that if it is evenly distributed, each team will have about one Hall of Famer. But of course, the NBA is not evenly distributed, and teams like the Mavericks are likely to easily have four Hall of Famers playing for them next season (Davis, Irving, Thompson and Flagg). The Thunder are so eye-catching not only because they have three potential future Hall of Fame members at the same time, but also because these players are still young, able to grow together and promote each other, and are expected to join hands to become great players at the historical level.

Author: Zach Kram

Translator: GWayNe

source:livescore 7m cn